We monitored the urinary C-X-C motif chemokine (CXCL)9 and CXCL10 levels in 1722 urine samples from 300 consecutive kidney recipients collected during the first posttransplantation year and assessed their predictive value for subsequent acute rejection (AR). The trajectories of urinary CXCL10 showed an early increase at 1 month (p = 0.0005) and 3 months (p = 0.0009) in patients who subsequently developed AR. At 1 year, the AR-free allograft survival rates were 90% and 54% in patients with CXCL10:creatinine (CXCL10:Cr) levels <2.79 ng/mmoL and >2.79 ng/mmoL at 1 month, respectively (p < 0.0001), and 88% and 56% in patients with CXCL10:Cr levels <5.32 ng/mmoL and >5.32 ng/mmoL at 3 months (p < 0.0001), respectively. CXCL9:Cr levels also associate, albeit less robustly, with AR-free allograft survival. Early CXCL10:Cr levels predicted clinical and subclinical rejection and both T cell– and antibody-mediated rejection. In 222 stable patients, CXCL10:Cr at 3 months predicted AR independent of concomitant protocol biopsy results (p = 0.009). Although its positive predictive value was low, a high negative predictive value suggests that early CXCL10:Cr might predict immunological quiescence on a triple-drug calcineurin inhibitor–based immunosuppressive regimen in the first posttransplantation year, even in clinically and histologically stable patients. The clinical utility of this test will need to be addressed by dedicated prospective clinical trials.
This observational study of 300 kidney transplant recipients finds that urinary CXCL10 at one month and three months posttransplant may identify patients at risk of acute rejection up to one year posttransplant.