Evaluation of prognostic scale Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction and Killip. An ST-elevation myocardial infarction new scale


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Abstract

BackgroundPrognostic systems are complex. So it is necessary to find tools, which are easy to use and have good calibration and discrimination.ObjectivesThe objective of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of Killip, Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI), and age to develop a new prognostic scale for patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).MethodsThe study population included all patients with STEMI consecutively admitted to the Intensive Care Unit of Carlos Haya Hospital, Malaga, Spain. Top variables included are Killip and TIMI, hospital mortality, intensive care unit stay, treatment received, and care times intervals.ResultsThe results are 806 patients; 75.6% men; age 63.11 ± 12.83 years old; TIMI, 3.57 ± 2.38; Killip I, 81.4%; and hospital mortality, 11.3%. Mortality increased in relation to age, TIMI, and Killip (P < .001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area for TIMI is 0.832 (0.786-0.878) and Killip, 0.757 (0.698-0.822). Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction classification was associated with Killip and age by multiple linear regression.Patients were stratified into 5 groups according to Killip and age: Killip I and younger than 65 years (n = 369; mortality, 1.4%; odds ratio [OR], 1), Killip I and 65 to 75 years old (n = 173; mortality, 6.9%; OR, 5.43 [1.88-15.66]), Killip I and older than 75 years (n = 112; mortality, 18.9%; OR, 13.03 [4.69-36.21]), Killip II to III (n = 129; mortality, 31%; OR, 22.72 [12.55-85.29]), Killip IV (n = 20; mortality, 80%; OR, 291.2 [71.32-1189]). ROC area is 0.84 (0.798-0.883). We created a scale with scores based on the β coefficient of logistical regression.ConclusionsThe TIMI scale discriminated hospital mortality correctly for STEMI. It performed better than Killip alone and similar to a simple model that included age and Killip. The 2-variable model consists of a simple scale with 5 categories.

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