Increasing sexual risk behaviour among Dutch men who have sex with men: mathematical models versus prospective cohort data

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Changes in risk behaviour among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands were estimated by fitting a mathematical model to annual HIV and AIDS diagnoses in the period 1980–2009 and, independently, from rates of unprotected anal intercourse in a prospective cohort study in Amsterdam. The agreement between the two approaches was very good, confirming that in terms of incidence, increasing risk behaviour between MSM is offsetting benefits offered by enhanced testing and treatment.

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