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Canagliflozin is an SGLT2 inhibitor approved for the treatment of type-2 diabetes. A dynamic population pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model relating 24-h canagliflozin exposure profiles to effects on glycosylated haemoglobin was developed to compare the efficacy of once-daily and twice-daily dosing.Data from two clinical studies, one with once-daily, and the other with twice-daily dosing of canagliflozin as add-on to metformin were used (n = 1347). An established population PK model was used to predict full 24-h profiles from measured trough concentrations and/or baseline covariates. The dynamic PK/PD model incorporated an Emax relationship between 24-h canagliflozin exposure and HbA1c-lowering with baseline HbA1c affecting the efficacy.Internal and external model validation demonstrated that the model adequately predicted HbA1c-lowering for canagliflozin once-daily and twice-daily dosing regimens. The differences in HbA1c reduction between the twice-daily and daily mean profiles were minimal (at most 0.023% for 100 mg total daily dose [TDD] and 0.011% for 300 mg TDD, up to week 26, increasing with time and decreasing with TDD) and not considered clinically meaningful.Simulations using this model demonstrated the absence of clinically meaningful between-regimen differences in efficacy, supported the regulatory approval of a canagliflozin-metformin immediate release fixed-dose combination tablet and alleviated the need for an additional clinical study.