No predictive factors are currently available to establish patient-specific GVHD risk. A panel of six serum cytokines (TNF receptor 1, IL-2 receptor alfa (IL-2Rα), hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), monocyte chemo-attractant protein-2, IL-8, IL-12p70) were monitored at established time points (days -1, +1, +7, +14, +21, +28 and +60) in 170 paediatric hematopoietic SCT (HSCT) recipients. We found that higher concentrations of IL-2Rα on days +14 and +21 together with HGF on days +14 and +21 were significantly associated at a higher probability of both grade II-IV GVHD (on day + 14 it was: 60% vs 28%, P= 0.007) and grade III-IV (on day +14 it was: 40% vs 15%, P= 0.001). The higher IL-8 serum concentration on day +28 was associated with a lower probability of chronic GVHD being 4% vs 29% (P=0.01) for patients with higher vs lower IL-8 serum concentration. These findings were confirmed when the analysis was restricted to the the matched unrelated donor group. In conclusion, even if the serum cytokine levels were related to several variables associated with HSCT, we identified two cytokines as predictors of GVHD II-IV and III-IV, translating into a higher TRM risk (17% vs 3%, P=0.004).
Bone Marrow Transplantation (2013) 48, 1230–1236;