Preliminary estimates of SEER cancer incidence for 2013

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This article presents a first look at rates and trends for cases in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program diagnosed through 2013 using the February 2015 submission, and a validation of rates and trends from the February 2014 submission using the subsequent November 2014 submission. To the authors' knowledge, this is the second time SEER has published trends based on the early February submission. Three new cancer sites were added: cervix, thyroid, and liver/ intrahepatic bile duct.


A reporting delay model adjusted for the undercount of cases, which is substantially larger for the February than the subsequent November submission, was used. Joinpoint regression methodology was used to assess trends. Delay-adjusted rates and trends were checked to assess validity between the February and November 2014 submissions.


The validation of rates and trends from the February and November 2014 submissions demonstrated even better agreement than the previously reported comparison between the February and November 2013 submissions, thereby affording additional confidence that the delay-adjusted February submission data can be used to produce valid estimates of incidence trends. Trends for cases diagnosed through 2013 revealed more rapid declines in female colon and rectal cancer and prostate cancer. A plateau in female melanoma trends and a slowing of the increases in thyroid cancer and male liver/intrahepatic bile duct cancer trends were observed.


Analysis of early cancer data submissions can provide a preliminary indication of differences in incidence trends with an additional year of data. Although the delay adjustment correction adjusts for underreporting of cases, caution should be exercised when interpreting the results in this early submission.

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