Establishing a Classification System for High Fall-Risk Among Inpatients Using Support Vector Machines

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Abstract

We constructed a model using a support vector machine to determine whether an inpatient will suffer a fall on a given day, depending on patient status on the previous day. Using fall report data from our own facility and intensity-of-nursing-care-needs data accumulated through hospital information systems, a dataset comprising approximately 1.2 million patient-days was created. Approximately 50% of the dataset was used as training and testing data. A multistep grid search was conducted using the semicomprehensive combination of three parameters. A discriminant model for the testing data was created for each parameter to identify which parameter had the highest score by calculating the sensitivity and specificity. The score of the model with the highest score had a sensitivity of 64.9% and a specificity of 69.6%. By adopting a method that relies on daily data recorded in the electronic medical record system and accurately predicts unknown data, we were able to overcome issues described in previous studies while simultaneously constructing a discriminant model for patients’ fall risk that does not burden nurses and patients with information gathering.

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