Introduction: Recently, sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists have been introduced as novel antidiabetic agents, but their potential health impact in the US is unknown. We assessed the number of potentially eligible type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients, as well as projected changes in death and complication rates for nationwide use.
Methods: Based on inclusion criteria of SGLT2i and GLP-1 receptor agonist RCTs, we determined eligibility in a weighted sample of 69.2M T2D patients from 2007-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data. We employed a validated microsimulation model based on the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial to simulate virtual life courses of eligible US patients. Pooled hazard ratios from meta-analyses of published RCTs were applied to model death and non-fatal adverse event rates with SGLT2i and GLP-1 receptor agonist use.
Results: The proportion eligible in NHANES was 9.2% (95% CI 7.3-11.1), which translates into ~6.4M US adults. Simulated 10-year mortality (32.5%) decreased by 4.6% (95% CI 2.7-7.3) with SGLT2i and by 2.9% (95% CI 1.6-4.8) with GLP-1 receptor agonists. Mean life expectancy was 16.5 y, and increased by 1.3 y (95% CI 0.6-2.2) with SGLT2i and by 0.8 y (95% CI 0.4-1.5) with GLP-1 receptor agonists. With SGLT2i, lifetime heart failure risk decreased by 7.4% (95% CI 4.1-12.3) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) risk decreased by 0.4% (95% CI -0.1-0.9). Improvements in these event risks were uncertain with GLP-1 receptor agonist use (Figure). With lifetime SGLT2i use, fracture risk increased from 16.9 to 22.4% (95% CI of Δ 2.5-9.6) and amputation risk rose from 5.7 to 11.2% (95% CI of Δ 2.3-9.5).
Conclusions: Nationwide use of SGLT2i or GLP-1 receptor agonists may save over 8 or 5M life years, respectively. Moreover, SGLT2i may avoid over 470K new cases of heart failure and over 28K ESRD cases. Further research should illuminate whether these benefits outweigh additional costs and harms.