Predicting Risk of Endocarditis Using a Clinical Tool (PREDICT): Scoring System to Guide Use of Echocardiography in the Management of Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia

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Background. Infective endocarditis (IE) is a serious complication of Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB). There is limited clinical evidence to guide use of echocardiography in the management of SAB cases.Methods. Baseline and 12-week follow-up data of all adults hospitalized at our institution with SAB from 2006 to 2011 were reviewed. Clinical predictors of IE were identified using multivariable logistic regression analysis.Results. Of the 757 patients screened, 678 individuals with SAB (24% community acquired, 56% healthcare associated, and 20% nosocomial) met study criteria. Eighty-five patients (13%) were diagnosed with definite IE within the 12 weeks of initial presentation based on modified Duke criteria. The proportion of patients with IE was 22% (36/166) in community-acquired SAB, 11% (40/378) in community-onset healthcare-associated SAB, and 7% (9/136) in nosocomial SAB. Community-acquired SAB, presence of cardiac device, and prolonged bacteremia (≥72 hours) were identified as independent predictors of IE in multivariable analysis. Two scoring systems, day 1 (SAB diagnosis day) and day 5 (when day 3 culture results are known), were derived based on the presence of these risk factors, weighted in magnitude by the corresponding regression coefficients. A score of ≥4 for day 1 model had a specificity of 96% and sensitivity of 21%, whereas a score of <2 for day 5 model had a sensitivity of 98.8% and negative predictive value of 98.5%.Conclusions. We propose 2 novel scoring systems to guide use of echocardiography in SAB cases. Larger prospective studies are needed to validate the classification performance of these scoring systems.

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