Evaluation of standard and modified severity of illness scores in the obstetric patient☆,☆☆


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Abstract

Purpose:To test discrimination and calibration of APACHE-II and SAPS-II risk prediction scores in a cohort of obstetric patients, and to evaluate the effect of modifying these scores for the physiological changes in pregnancy.Materials and Methods:A retrospective review of obstetric patients, 12 weeks gestation to 48 hours postpartum, admitted to the ICU for more than 24 hours. APACHE-II and SAPS-II, and versions modified for the physiological changes of pregnancy, were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and standardized mortality ratios (SMR). Multivariable analysis identified other parameters associated with mortality.Results:Data were obtained from 332 patients from 5 countries, with a mortality rate of 12%. Mean (± SD) APACHE-II score was 16.8 ± 6.1 and SAPS-II score 26.5 ± 15.8. Good discrimination was demonstrated with area under the ROC curves of 0.82 and 0.78 respectively, with no improvement after modification for altered maternal physiology. APACHE-II overestimated mortality, with an SMR of 0.43 (0.52 after including diagnostic weighting) compared with 0.89 for SAPS-II. Bilirubin, albumin and Glasgow Coma Scale were independently associated with mortality.Conclusion:APACHE-II and SAPS-II are good discriminators of illness severity and may be valuable for comparing obstetric cohorts, but APACHE-II significantly over-estimates mortality.

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