Comparison of Existing Clinical Scoring Systems in Predicting Severity and Prognoses of Hyperlipidemic Acute Pancreatitis in Chinese Patients: A Retrospective Study

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Abstract

It is important to identify the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) in the early course of the disease. Clinical scoring systems may be helpful to predict the prognosis of patients with early AP; however, few analysts have forecast the accuracy of scoring systems for the prognosis in hyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis (HLAP). The purpose of this study was to summarize the clinical characteristics of HLAP and compare the accuracy of conventional scoring systems in predicting the prognosis of HLAP.

This study retrospectively analyzed all consecutively diagnosed AP patients between September 2008 and March 2014. We compared the clinical characteristics between HLAP and nonhyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis. The bedside index for severity of acute pancreatitis (BISAP), Ranson, computed tomography severity index (CTSI), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) scores were applied within 48 hours following admission.

Of 909 AP patients, 129 (14.2%) had HLAP, 20 were classified as severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), 8 had pseudocysts, 9 had pancreatic necrosis, 30 had pleural effusions, 33 had SIRS, 14 had persistent organ failure, and there was 1 death. Among the HLAP patients, the area under curves for BISAP, Ranson, SIRS, and CTSI in predicting SAP were 0.905, 0.938, 0.812, and 0.834, 0.874, 0.726, 0.668, and 0.848 for local complications, and 0.904, 0.917, 0.758, and 0.849 for organ failure, respectively.

HLAP patients were characterized by younger age at onset, higher recurrence rate, and being more prone to pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, and SAP. BISAP, Ranson, SIRS, and CTSI all have accuracy in predicting the prognosis of HLAP patients, but each has different strengths and weaknesses.

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