Predictive value of drain pancreatic amylase concentration for postoperative pancreatic fistula on postoperative day 1 after pancreatic resection: An updated meta-analysis

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Background:Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a potentially fatal complication following pancreaticoduodenectomy. Early prediction and exclusion of POPF may be highly advantageous to enhance patient outcomes, and accelerate recovery. In this meta-analysis, we sought to assess the prediction of drain pancreatic amylase concentration on postoperative day 1 (DPA1) for POPF.Methods:By searching online databases up to April 2018, all researches mentioned DPA1 for detecting POPF were analyzed. STATA 12.0 was used to analyze pooled predictive parameters.Results:Seventeen studies were finally analyzed including 4676 patients in total. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of DPA1 were respectively 0.85 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.93), 0.80 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.85) to predict overall POPF, and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.53, 0.82), 0.88 (95% CI: 0.86, 0.90) to predict CR-POPF. If pretest probability was 50%, corresponding post-test (+) were respectively 81%, 86% for overall POPF and CR-POPF when DPA1 was above cutoffs, while the post-test (−) were respectively 16%, 26% when DPA1 was under cutoffs. In subgroup analysis, sensitivities of cutoff >5000 group, 1000< cutoff <5000 group, and cutoff <1000 group were respectively 0.65 (0.43–0.82), 0.82 (0.71–0.89), 0.87 (0.78–0.92); and specificities were respectively 0.88 (0.83–0.92), 0.83 (0.77–0.88), 0.71 (0.62–0.79). Positive LR was 5.5 (3.4–8.8), 4.8 (3.4–6.7), and 3.0 (2.3–4.0) respectively. Negative LR was 0.40 (0.22–0.72), 0.22 (0.13–0.37), and 0.19 (0.11–0.32) respectively.Conclusion:DPA1, which has good sensitivity and specificity, is useful for predicting overall POPF and CR-POPF, according to the present studies. Meanwhile, it should be cautious to apply because there is a wide range in cutoffs between different studies.

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