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There have been many reports on the prevalence and incidence of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), and there are some systematic reviews reporting on the pooled prevalence of AMD. However, there is no systematic review of incidence or progression of AMD worldwide. Given the few evidences regarding the pooled incidence or progression of AMD, we performed this meta-analysis protocol to investigate the global incidence or progression of AMD. In addition, we will investigate the risk factors for AMD incidence or progression using meta-analysis.Four English databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science) and four Chinese databases (CMB, CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang database) will be searched to identify relevant studies. The primary outcome of this meta-analysis is the incidence or progression of AMD. The second outcome of this meta-analysis is risk factors for the incidence or progression of AMD. Meta-analysis was performed to calculate the pooled incidence or progression rate and 95% confidence interval of AMD. Pooled risk ratios of risk factors (age, gender, smoking, and hypertension) for AMD incidence or progression were computed as the Mantel–Haenszel-weighted average of the risk ratios for all included studies. Sensitivity analysis, subgroup analysis, quality assessment, and publication bias analysis will be performed to ensure the reliability of our findings.This study will provide a current evidence of global pooled incidence or progression of AMD. Further, current study will provide evidence-based risk factors for AMD incidence or progression. Moreover, our study will project the incident number of people with AMD from 2030 to 2050.This systematic review and meta-analysis will provide evidence to develop major public health strategies for preventing AMD. Ethics and dissemination: ethical approval is not required because our systematic review and meta-analysis will be based on published data without interventions on patients. The findings of this study will be published in a peer-reviewed journal.