King's Score: an accurate marker of cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C


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Abstract

ObjectivesHistological assessment of patients with chronic hepatitis C infection is no longer performed routinely; consequently, a simple test is needed to identify patients with significant hepatic fibrosis.MethodsData were collected, retrospectively, on 923 consecutive patients undergoing percutaneous liver biopsy for chronic hepatitis C at King's College Hospital between 1 January 2000 and 30 June 2006; 602 patients were accepted to form the training set and a further 105 patients to form the validation set.ResultsOn liver biopsy, 132 (22%) had cirrhosis (Ishak F5–6) in the training set and 19 (18%) in the validation set. Factors found by multivariate analysis to be associated with fibrosis in the training set were used to construct the King's Score: age×aspartate aminotransferase×international normalized ratio ÷ platelets. Area under receiver operating characteristic curves for predicting cirrhosis and significant fibrosis (F3–6) were 0.91 and 0.79, respectively. A King's Score of greater than or equal to 16.7 predicted cirrhosis in 34% of patients (odds ratio 36.2, 95% confidence interval, 22.0–59.6; P<0.0001) with sensitivity 86%, specificity 80% and a high negative predictive value of 96%; a score greater than or equal to 12.3 predicted F3–6 (odds ratio 33.9, 95% confidence interval, 15.2–34.4; P<0.001). The validation set confirmed the utility of this index, area under receiver operating characteristic curves 0.94 and 0.89 for cirrhosis and F3–6, respectively.ConclusionThe King's Score is a simple and accurate index for predicting cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C. Patients with a score of less than 16.7 have a low risk of cirrhosis.

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