Predictors of Pneumocystosis or Tuberculosis in HIV-Infected Asian Patients With AFB Smear-Negative Sputum Pneumonia

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Objectives:To identify predictors of Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (PCP) or pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in acid-fast bacillus smear-negative HIV-infected patients and to develop clinical prediction rules.Design:A cohort study conducted in consecutive hospitalized Asian patients.Methods:Multivariate analyses were performed on the Cambodian sample to determine clinical, radiological, and biological predictors of PCP or TB at hospital admission. The Vietnamese sample was kept for independent validation.Results:In Cambodia, the gold standard technique for TB and PCP were fulfilled in 172 (27 cases) and 160 (84 cases) patients, respectively. For TB, independent predictors included the following: headache [odds ratio (OR) 3.0; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04 to 8.6], localized radiological opacity (OR 5.8; 95% CI 1.9-17.9), and mediastinal adenopathy (OR 10.1; 95% CI 3.5 to 29.0); and for PCP: resting oxygen saturation <90% (OR 3.3; 95% CI 1.3 to 8.5 for resting arterial oxygen saturation ≥80%; and OR 9.1; 95% CI 1.8 to 44.5 for resting arterial oxygen saturation <80%), trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole prophylaxis (OR 0.1; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.6), and diffuse radiological shadowing (OR 7.0; 95% CI 2.7 to 18.6). PCP risk predicted by a score based on these 3 factors ranged from 3% to 92% (Cambodia). When tested on Vietnamese patients (n = 69, 38 with PCP), the score maintained correct predictive ability (c-index = 0.72) but with poor calibration.Conclusions:The PCP score could provide a useful clinical tool to identify PCP among acid-fast bacillus smear-negative pneumonia and start specific therapy.

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