A Risk Score for Type 1 Diabetes Derived From Autoantibody-Positive Participants in the Diabetes Prevention Trial–Type 1

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Abstract

OBJECTIVE

The accurate prediction of type 1 diabetes is essential for appropriately identifying prevention trial participants. Thus, we have developed a risk score for the prediction of type 1 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Diabetes Prevention Trial–Type 1 (DPT-1) participants, islet cell autoantibody (ICA)-positive relatives of type 1 diabetic patients (n = 670), were randomly divided into development and validation samples. Risk score values were calculated for the validation sample from development sample model coefficients obtained through forward stepwise proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

A risk score based on a model including log-BMI, age, log-fasting C-peptide, and postchallenge glucose and C-peptide sums from 2-h oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) was derived from the development sample. The baseline risk score strongly predicted type 1 diabetes in the validation sample (χ2 = 82.3, P < 0.001). Its strength of prediction was almost the same (χ2 = 83.3) as a risk score additionally dependent on a decreased first-phase insulin response variable from intravenous glucose tolerance tests (IVGTTs). Biochemical autoantibodies did not contribute significantly to the risk score model. A final type 1 diabetes risk score was then derived from all participants with the same variables as those in the development sample model. The change in the type 1 diabetes risk score from baseline to 1 year was in itself also highly predictive of type 1 diabetes (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A risk score based on age, BMI, and OGTT indexes, without dependence on IVGTTs or additional autoantibodies, appears to accurately predict type 1 diabetes in ICA-positive relatives.

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