A novel scoring model for predicting mortality risk in patients with cirrhosis and hepatorenal syndrome


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Abstract

Background and aimsThis study aimed to create a risk scoring model for death from cirrhosis and hepatorenal syndrome, improve the detection rate of high-risk groups, and provide clinical evidence for early intervention treatment.Patients and methodsWe retrospectively recruited 196 patients with cirrhosis and hepatorenal syndrome between 1 January 2013 and 31 July 2014 at Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, China. The clinical information, biochemical values, age, and sex of the patients were included in the multivariate logistic regression model for screening independent risk factors. The model was validated in 56 patients with cirrhosis and hepatorenal syndrome between 1 August 2014 and 31 December 2014 at Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, China.ResultsThe death risk prediction scoring model included the following four independent risk factors: liver cancer, neutrophil above 70%, alanine aminotransferase higher than 40 U/l, and creatinine higher than 127 mmol/l. The sum death risk score ranged from 0 to 5: 0–2 identified patients with a lower risk of death (mortality rates: 12–41.4%), whereas 3–5 identified patients with a higher risk of death (mortality rates: 48.8–80%). Receiver-operating characteristic curves were constructed for the scoring model and the areas under the curves (AUC) were compared using the z-test. The AUC of the scoring model was 0.843. In addition, the AUC of validated model in 56 patients was 0.742.ConclusionThe scoring model can accurately predict mortality risk in patients with hepatorenal syndrome.

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