Time trends in incidence of cervical cancer in Lithuania from 1983 to 1997


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Abstract

This report examines time trends in both age-specific and age-standardized cervical cancer (ICD9-180) incidence rates among Lithuanian women. The study covers the period from 1983 to 1997. In case of the age-specific rates Poisson regression revealed the controversial results for the different age groups. The incidence rates increased (β > 0) for the women below 50 years and decreased (β < 0) for the women above 50 years. The average annual percentage changes were estimated using the age-drift model. In the age groups from 30 to 49 years old the incidence rate increased by 3.3% per year with the 95% confidence interval (CI) being 2.2–4.4. In the age groups from 50 to 69 years old the incidence rate decreased by 2.9% (95% CI: 1.9–3.8). In case of the age-standardized rates during the last few years some increase was observed, although no strict conclusions could be drawn. This observation together with the results of the age-specific rate studies predicts that in the near future the age-standardized rate will start growing.

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