Coupling the WRF model with a temperature index model based on remote sensing for snowmelt simulations in a river basin in the Altay Mountains, north-west China

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Abstract

Snowmelt water is an important freshwater resource in the Altay Mountains in north-west China; however, warming climate and rapid spring snowmelt can cause floods that endanger both public and personal property and safety. This study simulates snowmelt in the Kayiertesi River catchment using a temperature index model based on remote sensing coupled with high-resolution meteorological data obtained from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis fields that were downscaled using the Weather Research Forecasting model and then bias corrected using a statistical downscaled model. Validation of the forcing data revealed that the high-resolution meteorological fields derived from the downscaled NCEP reanalysis were reliable for driving the snowmelt model. Parameters of the temperature index model based on remote sensing were calibrated for spring 2014, and model performance was validated using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer snow cover and snow observations from spring 2012. The results show that the temperature index model based on remote sensing performed well, with a simulation mean relative error of 6.7% and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.98 in spring 2012 in the river of Altay Mountains. Based on the reliable distributed snow water equivalent simulation, daily snowmelt run-off was calculated for spring 2012 in the basin. In the study catchment, spring snowmelt run-off accounts for 72% of spring run-off and 21% of annual run-off. Snowmelt is the main source of run-off for the catchment and should be managed and utilized effectively. The results provide a basis for snowmelt run-off predictions, so as to prevent snowmelt-induced floods, and also provide a generalizable approach that can be applied to other remote locations where high-density, long-term observational data are lacking. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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