Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling methods using Canadian Global Climate Model predictors


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Abstract

Three downscaling models, namely the Statistical Down-Scaling Model (SDSM), the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model and an artificial neural network (ANN) model, have been compared in terms of various uncertainty attributes exhibited in their downscaled results of daily precipitation, daily maximum and minimum temperature. The uncertainty attributes are described by the model errors and the 95% confidence intervals in the estimates of means and variances of downscaled data. The significance of those errors has been examined by suitable statistical tests at the 95% confidence level. The 95% confidence intervals in the estimates of means and variances of downscaled data have been estimated using the bootstrapping method and compared with the observed data. The study has been carried out using 40 years of observed and downscaled daily precipitation data and daily maximum and minimum temperature data, starting from 1961 to 2000. In all the downscaling experiments, the simulated predictors of the Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM1) have been used. The uncertainty assessment results indicate that, in daily precipitation downscaling, the LARS-WG model errors are significant at the 95% confidence level only in a very few months, the SDSM errors are significant in some months, and the ANN model errors are significant in almost all months of the year. In downscaling daily maximum and minimum temperature, the performance of all three models is similar in terms of model errors evaluation at the 95% confidence level. But, according to the evaluation of variability and uncertainty in the estimates of means and variances of downscaled precipitation and temperature, the performances of the LARS-WG model and the SDSM are almost similar, whereas the ANN model performance is found to be poor in that consideration. Further assessment of those models, in terms of skewness and average dry-spell length comparison between observed and downscaled daily precipitation, indicates that the downscaled daily precipitation skewness and average dry-spell lengths of the LARS-WG model and the SDSM are closer to the observed data, whereas the ANN model downscaled precipitation underestimated those statistics in all months.

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