The GMENAC report and the PA profession

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Abstract

The 1980 report of the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) predicted a surplus of physicians by 1990 and 2000. The report appeared to have a depressing effect on the growth of the PA profession in the early 1980s; in the 9 years following its release, no new PA programs were started and a number of existing programs closed. The GMENAC forecast proved to be inaccurate and the PA profession saw significant program growth in the 1990s and beyond. A lesson of GMENAC is that accurately predicting health workforce supply and demand is difficult.

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