Factors in Early Adolescence Associated With a Mole-Prone Phenotype in Late Adolescence

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ImportanceNevi are important phenotypic risk factors for melanoma in adults. Few studies have examined the constitutional and behavioral factors associated with a mole-prone phenotype in adolescents.ObjectiveTo identify host, behavioral, and dermoscopic factors in early adolescence (age, 14 years) that are associated with a mole-prone phenotype in late adolescence (age, 17 years).Design, Setting, and ParticipantsA prospective observational cohort study from the Study of Nevi in Children was conducted from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2014, with a 2- to 3-year follow-up. A total of 569 students from the school system in Framingham, Massachusetts, were enrolled in the 8th or 9th grade (baseline; mean [SD] age, 14.4 [0.7] years). The overall retention rate was 73.3%, and 417 students were reassessed in the 11th grade.Main Outcome and MeasuresMole-prone phenotype in the 11th grade, defined as total nevus count of the back and 1 randomly selected leg in the top decile of the cohort or having any nevi greater than 5 mm in diameter.ResultsOf the 417 students assessed at follow-up in the 11th grade (166 females and 251 males; mean [SD] age, 17.0 [0.4] years), 111 participants (26.6%) demonstrated a mole-prone phenotype: 69 students (62.2%) with 1 nevus greater than 5 mm in diameter, 23 students (20.7%) with total nevus count in the top decile, and 19 students (17.1%) with both characteristics. On multivariate analysis, baseline total nevus count (adjusted odds ratio, 9.08; 95% CI, 4.0-23.7; P < .001) and increased variability of nevus dermoscopic pattern (adjusted odds ratio, 4.24; 95% CI, 1.36-13.25; P = .01) were associated with a mole-prone phenotype.Conclusions and RelevanceThis study found clinically recognizable factors associated with a mole-prone phenotype that may facilitate the identification of individuals at risk for melanoma. These findings could have implications for primary prevention strategies and help target at-risk adolescents for higher-intensity counseling about sun protection and skin self-examination.

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