Java project on periodontal diseases. The natural development of periodontitis: risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants

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To identify risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants for onset and progression of periodontitis.

Material and Methods

For this longitudinal, prospective study all subjects in the age range 15–25 years living in a village of approximately 2000 inhabitants at a tea estate on Western Java, Indonesia, were selected. Baseline examination was carried out in 1987 and follow-up examinations in 1994 and 2002. In 2002, 128 subjects could be retrieved from the original group of 255. Baseline examination included evaluation of plaque, bleeding on probing, calculus, pocket depth, attachment loss and presence of Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Prevotella intermedia, spirochetes and motile microorganisms.


The mean attachment loss increased from 0.33 mm in 1987 to 0.72 mm in 1994 and 1.97 mm in 2002. Analysis identified the amount of subgingival calculus and subgingival presence of A. actinomycetemcomitans as risk factors, and age as a risk determinant, for the onset of disease. Regarding disease progression, the number of sites with a probing depth ≥5 mm and the number of sites with recession were identified as risk predictors and male gender as a risk determinant.


Screening of these parameters early in life could be helpful in the prevention of onset and progression of periodontal diseases.

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