Qualitative analysis of future flood risk in the Taihu Basin, China

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Abstract

This paper presents the results of a qualitative analysis of future flood risk in the Taihu Basin, China, performed using an adaptation of the UK Foresight Future Flooding approach. Drivers of increased flood risk were identified and ranked according to their importance in contributing to future flooding by experts and stakeholders working within an inclusive, participatory framework. Management responses to increasing flood risk were also identified and assessed in terms, first, of their potential to reduce flood risks and, second, their sustainability. This analysis provides the foundation for quantitative flood risk modelling to be performed in the next phase of the project. It has also added value to flood risk management in the Taihu Basin by bringing stakeholders together to develop a shared understanding of the flooding system and the relative importance of multiple flood risk drivers and responses. Together, the qualitative and quantitative analyses will provide a comprehensive vision of possible future flood risk to inform policy development and decision making.

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