AbstractBackground and Aims:
Biphasic modeling of viral kinetics provided valuable information to rapidly assess potential antiviral regimens during the beginning of therapy, but has not been performed over the long term.Methods:
In 11 chronic hepatitis B patients with lamivudine treated per day, the model with delay time was applied to examine phase transition and analyze viral kinetics parameters.Results:
Viral decay conformed to a biphasic mode during the first 4 weeks, with the complex profile appeared in the later period. Lamivudine treatment resulted in a mean log hepatitis B virus (HBV)-DNA decline of 1.77 ± 0.55 after 4 weeks and 3.79 ± 1.70 log after 24 weeks. The median effectiveness of blocking viral replication was 96% (range, 89-99%). The median rate of free virus clearance and infected cell loss was 1.1/day and 0.03/day, respectively. Through phase transition determination and stepwise modeling process, viral kinetics were evaluated for complex decay profile during long-term therapy. Moreover, with the abnormal kinetics tracked, an occasion of add-on combined therapy was developed to treat patients with emerging virus mutants.Conclusion:
The present study using mathematical modeling of viral decay may be a useful approach to evaluate optimal individualized therapy for HBV infection in a continuous long-term manner.