Ocular Hypertension and the Risk of Blindness

    loading  Checking for direct PDF access through Ovid



To estimate the risk of blindness in patients with ocular hypertension (OHT) using an appropriate model and current empirical data.


A Markov model with data from a systematic literature review.


A Markov model with 3 health states was built: OHT, primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG), and unilateral blindness. Literature was searched for reports on conversion from OHT to POAG and progression from POAG to blindness, to estimate a range of annual conversion and progression probabilities. The model had a cycle length of 1 year.


The 15-year risk estimates ranged from 3.1% to 9.4% in untreated, and from 0.9% to 8.6% in treated patients with OHT. The ranges were the result of differences in patient populations, treatments, and outcome definitions in currently available empirical data.


The best estimates of the 15-year risk of unilateral blindness in patients with OHT, based on the currently available empirical data and an appropriate model, show that the risk is <10%.

Related Topics

    loading  Loading Related Articles