Evaluation of risk for incident hypertension using glomerular filtration rate in the normotensive general population

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The present study tested the hypothesis that glomerular filtration rate can predict the onset of hypertension in individuals with normal blood pressure in the general population.


Normotensive individuals (n = 7684) who visited our hospital for a routine physical examination were enrolled in the study (4907 men; mean age 52.1 ± 11.1 years) and were followed up with the endpoint being the development of hypertension. The relationship between estimated glomerular filtration rate at baseline and the incidence of hypertension was evaluated.


During the follow-up period (median 4.0 years; actual follow-up 30 624 person-years), hypertension developed in 2031 participants (66.3 per 1000 person-years). After adjustment for possible risk factors, the hazard ratio of incident hypertension (first tertile as reference) in the second and third tertiles was 1.03 (95% confidence interval 0.92–1.16) and 1.40 (95% confidence interval 1.26–1.57), respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, in which estimated glomerular filtration rate was taken as a continuous variable and adjustments were made for known risk factors, also indicated that baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate independently predicted the onset of hypertension (P < 0.0001). Furthermore, multiple regression analysis revealed that a longitudinal increase in SBP was significantly associated with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate after adjustment for known risk factors (P < 0.01).


Estimated glomerular filtration rate in normotensive individuals is a good predictor of the onset of hypertension in the general population.

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