PS 18-04 MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR THE OPTIMIZATION OF REGULATORY POLICY ON THE UKRAINIAN MARKET OF ANTIHYPERTENSIVE DRUGS

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Abstract

Objective:

Over the years cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality in different countries including Ukraine. Since 2012 Ukraine has been implementing the project of state price regulation of pharmaceutical products for the treatment of patients with hypertension, but expected effectiveness and consequences of this project are still questionable.

Design and Method:

Methods of evidence-based medicine, economic and market analysis and mathematical modeling of economic systems were used in this study.

Results:

It was developed mathematical model in the form of integrated criterion, as a tool for estimation the change in life expectancy for patients with hypertension depending on the reimbursement budget (Fig., formula 1). With the limited budget maximum reimbursement effect of regulatory policy is determined, solving the problem of maximizing the cumulative change in life expectancy among patients with hypertension (Fig., formula 3). New and reference price can be determined for the next period of time via analysis of the results of possible extension of the project (Fig., formula 4). Regulatory policy can determine the optimal amount of funding for the next period, changing the rate of reimbursement and distribution of funds among the different groups of patients and increasing the life expectancy of patients (Fig., formula 5 and 6).

Conclusions:

The developed mathematical model can be used for the choice of optimal distribution of reimbursement budget between the various groups of hypertensive patients, determining the impact of regulatory policy as life expectancy increase and minimization of the amount of necessary funds.

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