To analyze incident hypertension and its risk factors based on 11.9 years follow-up of a recent National Examination Survey cohort in Germany.Methods:
Out of 7124 participants of the German National Health Interview and Examination Survey 1998 (GNHIES98), 640 had died at follow-up 2008–2011 and 3045 were reexamined as part of the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–2011 (DEGS1). Baseline and follow-up included standardized blood pressure (BP) measurements. Hypertension was defined as BP of at least 140/90 mmHg or intake of antihypertensive medication in participants with known hypertension.Results:
Out of 2231 GNHIES98–DEGS1 participants aged 18–79 years without hypertension in 1998, 26.2% developed hypertension within a mean of 11.9 (range 10.0–14.1) years (men 29.0%, women 23.4%). In univariate analysis, hypertension incidence was positively associated with age, BMI, initial BP levels, pulse pressure, and alcohol consumption. Comorbidities such as diabetes and hyperlipidemia increased the chance to develop hypertension. In the multivariate model, initial SBP and DBP levels had the strongest influence on the development of future hypertension (7% increase in men and 5% in women per mmHg SBP). The percentage of aware, treated, and controlled hypertensive patients were 75.8, 62.1, and 50.3% in men and 83.8, 73.3, and 59.0% in women.Conclusion:
The high 11.9-year incidence in all age groups points to the lifelong potential for prevention of hypertension.