A17836 Absolute Risk Estimation for Hypertension Development from Normotensives using Japanese Specific Health Examination

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Abstract

Objectives:

To identify high risk individuals for hypertension development from normotensive group by practical method.

Methods:

Consecutive 2939 normotensive (below 140/90mmHg) subjects who underwent medical examinations and questionnaire of Japanese specific health examination (JSHE) were followed until development of hypertension (140/90mmHg and/or more or start of therapy). By Cox proportional hazards model, regression coefficients β of independent variables that affected 8-year hypertension-free rate (HTFR) significantly were calculated, and formula for estimation of absolute risk for development of hypertension in 8 years (AR) was computed. Independent variables adopted initially were examination results such as gender, age, bmi, sbp, tg, hdl-c, ldl-c, fbs, uric acid (ua), and questionnaire on life style such as smoking, body weight change, exercise, diet, drinking, which were included in JSHE.

Results:

Independent variables affected 8-year hypertension-free rate were age, bmi, sbp, ua, smoking (sm), family history of hypertension (fh), skipping breakfast (sb) at baseline. AR from any normotensives was calculated from mean at baseline (M) and β of these significant independent variables as: 1 - [(HTFR of our Cohort) multiplied by itself (X) times], X is: Exp[βage (age - Mage) + βbmi (bmi - Mbmi) + βsbp (sbp - Msbp) + βua (ua - Mua) + βsm (sm - Msm) + βfh (fh - Mfh) + βsb (sb - Msb)] Substituting results of our cohort of total HTFR, initial averages, and βs of there variables, AR was 1 - [(0.785) multiplied by 0.785 (X) times], where X is Exp[0.032 (age − 48.2) + 0.051 (bmi − 22.5) + 0.076 (sbp − 108) + 0.149 (ua − 5.4) + 0.213 (sm − 1.75) + 0.247 (fh − 0.258) + 0.231 (sb − 0.162)] sm: yes;1, no;2. fh and sb: yes;1, no;0.

Conclusion:

8-year absolute risk for hypertension development was assessed by JSHE.

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