The associations of CD4 cell count, plasma human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 RNA, infectious HIV titer in peripheral blood mononuclear cells, immune complex-disrupted (ICD) p24 antigen, and MT-2 assays with measures of disease progression after drug treatment were assessed in a subset of patients enrolled in AIDS Clinical Trials Group Study 175. Baseline plasma RNA levels and changes in RNA values at weeks 8 or 56 were more important predictors of disease progression than were baseline or changes in CD4 cell counts. Each 10-fold lower HIV RNA concentration at baseline and each 10-fold decrease in HIV RNA between baseline and week 8 was associated with increases of 49-61 CD4 cells/mm3 at weeks 56 and 104. In multivariate analyses, neither baseline values nor changes in infectious HIV titer nor ICD p24 antigen concentrations were associated with long-term changes in CD4 cell count. Plasma HIV-1 RNA appears to be the best predictor of long-term CD4 cell count responses and disease progression.