Prediction of behavior from beliefs: An extension and test of a subjective probability model

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Abstract

Tested a model for the prediction of behavior from beliefs in the context of voting behavior in the 1976 presidential election. A 2-wave panel design was used in a field survey in which voting behavior was predicted from beliefs about candidates in accord with a recent subjective probability model. Ss were 119 23–56 yr old Democrats, Republicans, and independents. Results support the model, yielding an average correlation between predicted and obtained voting behavior of .75. The average correlation between predicted and obtained voting intention was .84. The ability of the model to predict behavior and behavioral intentions was relatively unaffected by the educational level of the respondent and the type of beliefs under consideration. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved)

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