Prediction of Survival and Tumor Recurrence in Patients Undergoing Surgery for Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasms

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Abstract

Background:

This study strives to define prognostic models for outcome after surgery for malignant pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors.

Methods:

Forty-one patients were included. Prognostic models for mortality and disease recurrence were developed with multivariate binary logistic regression.

Results:

The proposed prognostic model for tumor recurrence risk after surgery in percentage (AUROC = 0.774, 95%CI = 0.611–0.937) is: Risk in % = Exp(Y)/(1 + Exp(Y)), with Y = −4.360 + (0.015 × tumor diameter in cm) + (0.010 × preoperative platelet count in thousand/μl) + (1.077 × distant metastases, if yes = 1; if no = 0) + (−0.026 × Ki-67-positive cells in %) + (−1.086 × upper abdominal pain, if yes = 1; if no = 0). The proposed prognostic model for observed 3-year survival probability after surgery in % (AUROC = 0.932, 95%CI = 0.857–0.999) is: Survival probability in % = Exp(Y)/(1 + Exp(Y)), with Y = −12.492 + (0.054 × preoperative platelet count in thousand/μl) + (0.112 × minimal distance of the resection margin from the tumor in mm) + (−1.574 × number of positive lymph nodes) + (2.292 × histological tumor infiltration, if yes = 1; if no = 0)

Conclusions:

The platelet count was identified as a relevant risk factor. Proposed prognostic models with good model-fit display properties that indicate potential clinical usefulness. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;113:194–202. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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