ROC analysis of prepartum feeding time can accurately predict postpartum metritis development in HF crossbred cows

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Abstract

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is a useful statistical tool to visualize, organize, and select diagnostic variables. Accuracy of the test is represented by the area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity (Se), and specificity (Sp). In the present study, ROC analysis of prepartum feeding time (day −11 to day −2) of 20 pluriparous Holstein-Friesian crossbred cows were recorded, and the cows were followed up for detecting postpartum metritis development if any. Prepartum daily feeding time data during whole study was grouped into 2 periods (P1 [day −11 to day −7] and P2 [day −6 to day −2]). The AUC of feeding time for the P1 and P2 periods was 0.64 (P = 0.29) and 0.86 (P = 0.006), respectively. Cows with daily feeding times below the optimum threshold value of 284.5 min/d during P2 (Se = 75% and Sp = 91.67%) had more chance of developing postpartum metritis compared with those with daily feeding time above the threshold value (positive likelihood ratio = 9.0). Furthermore, relative risk (RR) analysis revealed that the risk of development of postpartum metritis increased as feeding time decreased below the optimum threshold value during P2 (RR = 5.571, P = 0.004). Thus, the optimum threshold value of feeding time during P2 may be used to predict risk of postpartum metritis, allowing for preventive measures to be implemented in the early postpartum period to reduce the likelihood of postpartum complications.

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