A Note on Portraying the Accuracy of Violence Predictions

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Abstract

We discuss two major reviews of the accuracy of dichotomous (yes/no) violence predictions (Monahan, 1981; Otto, 1992), which reported rates of false positive errors that were calculated using conceptually and mathematically dissimilar methods. We outline potential problems that result from analyzing data in the form of 2 × 2 contingency tables and offer some recommendations for future research on the prediction of violence.

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