A Cross-Validation of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide—Revised (VRAG–R) Within a Correctional Sample

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Abstract

The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide—Revised (VRAG–R) was developed to replace the original VRAG based on an updated and larger sample with an extended follow-up period. Using a sample of 120 adult male correctional offenders, the current study examined the interrater reliability and predictive and comparative validity of the VRAG–R to the VRAG, the Psychopathy Checklist—Revised, the Statistical Information on Recidivism—Revised, and the Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimate over a follow-up period of up to 22 years postrelease. The VRAG–R achieved moderate levels of predictive validity for both general and violent recidivism that was sustained over time as evidenced by time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) analysis. Further, moderate predictive validity was evident when the Antisociality item was both removed and then subsequently replaced with a substitute measure of antisociality. Results of the individual item analyses for the VRAG and VRAG–R revealed that only a small number of items are significant predictors of violent recidivism. The results of this study have implications for the application of the VRAG–R to the assessment of violent recidivism among correctional offenders.

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