Optimism in the Face of Uncertainty Should be Refutable

    loading  Checking for direct PDF access through Ovid

Abstract

We give an example from the theory of Markov decision processes which shows that the “optimism in the face of uncertainty” heuristics may fail to make any progress. This is due to the impossibility to falsify a belief that a (transition) probability is larger than 0. Our example shows the utility of Popper's demand of falsifiability of hypotheses in the area of artificial intelligence.

Related Topics

    loading  Loading Related Articles