The Predictive Role of Simulations in Assessing Military Performance

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Abstract

The current study assessed the predictive validity of simulations to improve the military selection system. Four navy simulations were developed and their predictive validity was measured. The performance of 1007 Israeli navy soldiers was measured in a longitudinal study, which was carried on for almost two years. Participants’ performance in four simulations (naval-navigation test, raft sailing, rubber boat [zodiac] mounting, and military tent assembly) was measured and used as a behavioral predictor for their performance at the end of their first year of active military service on combat ships. All but the raft sailing simulation predicted participants’ performance.

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