Including Geological Uncertainty and Economic Analysis in a Rapid Simulation of Hydrocarbon Exploration

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Manly's approximation method has been applied to hydrocarbon discovery process modeling in order to approximate the expected value and the standard deviation of the total discovery volume for a given exploratory effort. A major benefit of this method is that it allows the model to run much faster than the regular simulation method, yet it gives accurate results. This paper extends the benefit of Manly's approach by allowing the approximation method to incorporate the uncertainties in geological parameters that drive Manly's approximation, in order to provide an approximation of the complete distribution of total discovery volume that can result from exploration activity. In addition, it allows the model to include economic parameters into an evaluation of the economic worth of the results of exploration activity, producing distributions of net present value within a short period of time. The offshore Nova Scotia Shelf Basin is selected for demonstrating the methodology.

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