Predictors of Malignancy in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of the Pancreas: Analysis of 310 Pancreatic Resection Patients at Multiple High-Volume Centers

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The present study was a retrospective investigation of predictors of malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) of the pancreas.


The subjects were 310 patients who underwent pancreatic resection at 3 high-volume centers. Preoperative laboratory and imaging findings were analyzed in logistic regression analyses. Endoscopic ultrasonography measurements were essential for the size of mural nodules, and a central review was conducted for pathological diagnosis.


Pathological diagnosis was benign IPMN in 150 cases and malignant in 160 (noninvasive carcinoma, n = 100; invasive, n = 60). In multivariate analysis, size of mural nodules, diameter of main pancreatic duct, and cyst size of branch pancreatic duct were independent predictors of malignancy, and areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for these 3 factors were 0.798, 0.643, and 0.601, respectively. With 7 mm taken as the cutoff value for the size of mural nodules, the diagnosis of malignant IPMN had sensitivity of 74.3% and specificity of 72.7%. Carcinoma without nodules was present in 15 patients (15/160 [9.4%]).


The size of mural nodules measured with endoscopic ultrasonography showed high predictive ability. However, about 10% of carcinoma patients did not have nodules, and the handling of the diagnosis in such cases is a problem for the future.

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