Comparison of Various Scoring Systems and Biochemical Markers in Predicting the Outcome in Acute Pancreatitis

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Abstract

Objective

Early risk assessment is important in acute pancreatitis (AP). The primary objective of this study was to compare various scores and biochemical markers done on the day of admission in predicting the outcome.

Methods

Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data of patients presenting within 2 weeks of onset were collected. Various scores were calculated and biochemical markers were measured on the day of admission. Optimum cutoffs were identified through receiver operating curve analysis. Multivariate analysis was used to identify predictors of outcome.

Results

Of 343 patients included, 202 (59%) were male; mean (SD) age was 38.7 (15.5) years. Acute pancreatitis was severe in 170 (49.6%) patients. Twenty-eight percent of the patients developed infected pancreatic necrosis and 18% died. An Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score of at least 7, bedside index for severity of AP (BISAP) of at least 2, systemic inflammatory response syndrome score of at least 3, and C-reactive protein of at least 82 ng/mL predicted severity. Predictors of infected pancreatic necrosis were as follows: PANC 3 score of at least 1, BISAP score of at least 2, and Marshall score of at least 2, whereas C-reactive protein of greater than 98, BISAP score of at least 2, APACHE score of at least 10, and a blood urea nitrogen of at least 17 predicted mortality.

Conclusions

Both BISAP and APACHE II are comparable in predicting outcome, but BISAP predicted all 3 outcomes with the same cutoff and hence is a robust scoring system.

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