Modeling the Long-term Persistence of Hepatitis A Antibody After a Two-Dose Vaccination Schedule in Argentinean Children

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Long-term seroprotection data are essential for decision-making on the need and timing of vaccine boosters. Based on data from longitudinal serological studies, modeling can provide estimates on long-term antibody persistence and inform such decision-making.


We examined long-term anti-hepatitis A virus (anti-HAV) antibody persistence in Argentinean children ≤15 years after the initial study where they completed a 2-dose course of inactivated hepatitis A vaccine (Avaxim® 80U Pediatric, Sanofi Pasteur, Lyon, France). Blood serum samples were taken at baseline, 2 weeks (post first dose), 6 months (pre-booster), 6.5 months (post-booster), 10 years and 14–15 years after first vaccine dose. We fitted 8 statistical model types, predominantly mixed effects models, to anti-HAV persistence data, to identify the most appropriate and best fitting models for our data set and to predict individuals’ anti-HAV levels and seroprotection rates up to 30 years post vaccination.


Fifty-four children (mean age at enrollment 30.4 months) were enrolled up to 15 years post first vaccine dose. There were 3 distinct periods of antibody concentration: rapid rise up to peak concentration post-booster, rapid decay from post-booster to 10 years, followed by slower decay. A 3-segmented linear mixed effects model was the most appropriate for the data set. Extrapolating based on the available 14–15-year follow-up, the analysis predicted that 88% of individuals anti-HAV seronegative prior to vaccination would remain seroprotected at 30 years post vaccination and lifelong seroprotection for vaccinees seropositive prior to vaccination.


Currently available data demonstrate that Avaxim® 80U Pediatric confers to most vaccinees a high level of seroprotection against hepatitis A infection for at least 20–30 years.

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