Risk factors of high-grade anal intraepithelial neoplasia recurrence in HIV-infected MSM

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To assess risk factors of high-grade anal intraepithelial neoplasia (HGAIN) recurrence in a cohort of HIV-infected MSM.

Design and methods:

Consecutive HIV-infected 100 MSM with a history of successfully treated intra-anal HGAIN with electrocautery were followed with anal cytology, human papillomavirus (HPV) determination, and high-resolution anoscopy (HRA) at 3–6-month intervals. HGAIN recurrence was analyzed using Kaplan–Meier analysis. Risk factors of recurrence were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression. The value of different tests for detecting recurrence was also assessed.


After a mean follow-up of 17.6 months, 39 of the 100 patients [39%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 29–49] developed recurrent HGAIN, 24 at the previously treated site, and 15 at a different site. The probability of recurrence was 23.5% at 12 months (95% CI: 13.9–33.1) and 53.3% at 24 months (95% CI: 34.3–72.7). Risk factors of recurrence were presence of hepatitis C antibodies (hazard ratio 2.79; 95% CI: 1.04–7.53), nadir CD4+ cell count less than 200 cells/μl (hazard ratio 2.61; 95% CI: 1.06–6.44), and HGAIN lesions affecting at least two octants of anal circumference (hazard ratio 8.27; 95% CI: 1.1–62). Infection by at least two HPV oncogenic strains increased the risk of recurrence (hazard ratio 2.3; 95% CI: 0.98–5.42). HRA, anal cytology, and oncogenic HPV determination test showed a sensitivity of 100, 79.4, and 86.7%, and a specificity of 57.7, 36.6, and 34.7%, respectively, for detecting HGAIN recurrence.


The risk of HGAIN recurrence in HIV-infected MSM is high. Regular posttreatment follow-up of these patients is mandatory, and performing direct HRA appears to be the best strategy.

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