Incidence of atrial fibrillation and its risk prediction model based on a prospective urban Han Chinese cohort

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Prediction models of atrial fibrillation (AF) have been developed; however, there was no AF prediction model validated in Chinese population. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the incidence of AF in urban Han Chinese health check-up population, as well as to develop AF prediction models using behavioral, anthropometric, biochemical, electrocardiogram (ECG) markers, as well as visit-to-visit variability (VVV) in blood pressures available in the routine health check-up. A total of 33 186 participants aged 45-85 years and free of AF at baseline were included in this cohort, to follow up for incident AF with an annually routine health check-up. Cox regression models were used to develop AF prediction model and 10-fold cross-validation was used to test the discriminatory accuracy of prediction model. We developed three prediction models, with age, sex, history of coronary heart disease (CHD), hypertension as predictors for simple model, with left high-amplitude waves, premature beats added for ECG model, and with age, sex, history of CHD and VVV in systolic and diabolic blood pressures as predictors for VVV model, to estimate risk of incident AF. The calibration of our models ranged from 1.001 to 1.004 (P for Hosmer Lemeshow test > 0.05). The area under receiver operator characteristics curve were 78%, 80% and 82%, respectively, for predicting risk of AF. In conclusion, we have identified predictors of incident AF and developed prediction models for AF with variables readily available in routine health check-up.

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