Incremental Prediction of Intimate Partner Violence: An Examination of Three Risk Measures

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Abstract

Improvements in the risk prediction of domestic violence against intimate partners have the potential to inform policing practices in the prevention of further victimization. The present study examined the incremental predictive validity of 3 measures of risk for intimate partner violence (IPV)—Spousal Assault Risk Assessment (SARA), Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA), and the Family Violence Investigative Report (FVIR)—for IPV, general violence, and general recidivism outcomes. The sample featured 289 men and women who were reported to police for IPV and followed up approximately 3 years post release. Archival ratings of the 3 measures demonstrated that SARA scores showed incremental validity for IPV recidivism, ODARA scores incrementally predicted general violence, and both tools incrementally predicted general recidivism. The FVIR did not incrementally predict any outcomes. Fine grained analyses demonstrated that the Psychosocial Adjustment domain of the SARA contributed most uniquely to the prediction of IPV. Survival analysis supported the use of the SARA and ODARA in tandem for appraising risk for IPV or general criminal recidivism. Calibration analyses using logistic regression modeling also demonstrated 3-year recidivism estimates for SARA and ODARA scores. Implications for the use of multiple tools in clinical practice are discussed, particularly for combining the SARA and ODARA measures to augment IPV risk assessment and management.

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