Predicted Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Masked Hypertension Among Blacks in the Jackson Heart Study

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Abstract

Background—

Among individuals without hypertension based on clinic blood pressure (BP), it is unclear who should be screened for masked hypertension, defined as having hypertension based on out-of-clinic BP. We hypothesized that individuals with a higher 10-year predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, calculated using the pooled cohort risk equations, have a higher prevalence of masked hypertension.

Methods and Results—

We analyzed data from the Jackson Heart Study—a population-based cohort of blacks—to determine the association of predicted ASCVD risk with masked hypertension. The sample included 644 participants, 40 to 79 years of age, with clinic systolic/diastolic BP <140/90 mm Hg, who completed ambulatory BP monitoring, were free of cardiovascular disease, and had data on factors needed to calculate ASCVD risk. Ten-year predicted ASCVD risk was calculated using the pooled cohort risk equations. Any masked hypertension was defined as masked daytime hypertension (mean daytime systolic/diastolic BP ≥135/85 mm Hg), masked nighttime hypertension (mean nighttime systolic/diastolic BP ≥120/70 mm Hg), or masked 24-hour hypertension (mean 24-hour systolic/diastolic BP ≥130/80 mm Hg). The prevalence of any masked hypertension was 54.0%. Compared with participants in the lowest (<5%) predicted ASCVD risk category, multivariable-adjusted prevalence ratios (95% confidence interval) for any masked hypertension were 1.36 (1.03–1.79), 1.62 (1.22–2.16), and 1.91 (1.47–2.48) for those with ASCVD risk of 5% to <7.5%, 7.5% to <10%, and ≥10%, respectively. The C statistic for discriminating between participants with versus without any masked hypertension was 0.681 (95% confidence interval, 0.640–0.723) for ASCVD risk and 0.703 (95% confidence interval, 0.663–0.744) for clinic systolic BP and diastolic BP.

Conclusions—

Higher ASCVD risk was associated with an increased prevalence of masked hypertension. Although the discrimination of ASCVD risk for masked hypertension was not superior to clinic BP, risk prediction equations may be useful for identifying the subgroup of individuals with both masked hypertension and high predicted ASCVD risk.

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