Development of a prognostic nomogram for cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

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Abstract

Background and aim

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a complication with a high mortality rate in critically ill patients presenting with cirrhosis. Today, there exist few accurate scoring models specifically designed for mortality risk assessment in critically ill cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (CICGIB). Our aim was to develop and evaluate a novel nomogram-based model specific for CICGIB.

Patients and methods

Overall, 540 consecutive CICGIB patients were enrolled. On the basis of Cox regression analyses, the nomogram was constructed to estimate the probability of 30-day, 90-day, 270-day, and 1-year survival. An upper gastrointestinal bleeding–chronic liver failure–sequential organ failure assessment (UGIB–CLIF–SOFA) score was derived from the nomogram. Performance assessment and internal validation of the model were performed using Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and bootstrap sample procedures. UGIB–CLIF–SOFA was also compared with other prognostic models, such as CLIF–SOFA and model for end-stage liver disease, using C-indices.

Results

Eight independent factors derived from Cox analysis (including bilirubin, creatinine, international normalized ratio, sodium, albumin, mean artery pressure, vasopressin used, and hematocrit decrease>10%) were assembled into the nomogram and the UGIB–CLIF–SOFA score. The calibration plots showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index of the nomogram using bootstrap (0.729; 95% confidence interval: 0.689–0.766) was higher than that of the other models for predicting survival of CICGIB.

Conclusion

We have developed and internally validated a novel nomogram and an easy-to-use scoring system that accurately predicts the mortality probability of CICGIB on the basis of eight easy-to-obtain parameters. External validation is now warranted in future clinical studies.

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