Can the Sum of Adenoma Diameters (Adenoma Bulk) on Index Examination Predict Risk of Metachronous Advanced Neoplasia?

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Recent data suggest that adenoma size and number are more important predictors of metachronous colorectal neoplasia than advanced histology. Furthermore, there is poor reproducibility in diagnosing advanced histology; high-grade dysplasia and villous histology. Therefore we developed a new metric, adenoma bulk, the sum of diameters of all baseline adenomas, regardless of advanced features.


Compare the predictive value for metachronous advanced neoplasia of adenoma bulk to conventional paradigm.


Data were collected prospectively in a multicenter adenoma-chemoprevention trial (2004 to 2013). For the conventional paradigm, high-risk baseline findings were defined as ≥3 adenomas, large adenomas (≥1 cm) or adenomas with villous components or high-grade dysplasia. Adenoma bulk was examined across quartiles and as a continuous variable. Predictive characteristics (sensitivities, specificities, c-statistics) for metachronous advanced neoplasia using conventional criteria and adenoma bulk were calculated. receiver operator characteristic curves were computed using logistic regression.


In total, 1948 adults had index and follow-up colonoscopies (mean follow-up, 45.2 mo). Those with an adenoma bulk ≥10 mm (4th quartile) had a higher metachronous advanced neoplasia risk (14.4% vs. 6.9–8.2% in lower 3 quartiles; P=0.0002). The c-statistics and sensitivities (specificity fixed at 0.73) for the adenoma bulk and conventional models were 0.587 and 0.563 (P=0.17) and 0.396 and 0.390, respectively.


Categorizing sporadic adenoma patients as high versus low risk for metachronous advanced neoplasia by adenoma bulk of

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