Cumulative incidence of admission to permanent residential aged care for Australian women – A competing risk analysis

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To provide a direct estimate of the risk of admission to permanent residential aged care among older women while accounting for death, according to housing type and other variables.


A competing risk analysis from 8,867 Australian women born 1921–26, using linked data from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH), Residential Aged Care (RAC), and the Australian National Death Index.


After accounting for deaths, around 35% of women will be admitted to RAC between ages 73 and 90. The conditional cumulative incidence of admission to RAC was 26.9% if living in a house, compared to 36.0% from an apartment, 43.6% within a retirement village, and 37.1% if living in a mobile home. Each one-year increase in age was associated with a relative 17% increased risk of RAC.


Around one-third of women will enter RAC between age 73 and 90. Living in a house had the lowest risk of entering residential aged care over time.

Implications for public health:

These findings have important implications for planning for aged care services, including the role of housing in delaying admission to residential aged care, and the need for residential care by a high proportion of women towards the end of life.

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