Derivation and Internal Validation of a Mortality Prediction Tool for Initial Survivors of Pediatric In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest*

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Abstract

Objectives:

To develop a clinical prediction score for predicting mortality in children following return of spontaneous circulation after in-hospital cardiac arrest.

Design:

Observational study using prospectively collected data.

Setting:

This was an analysis using data from the Get With The Guidelines-Resuscitation registry between January 2000 and December 2015.

Patients:

Pediatric patients (< 18 yr old) who achieved return of spontaneous circulation.

Interventions:

None.

Measurements and Main Results:

The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Patients were divided into a derivation (3/4) and validation (1/4) cohort. A prediction score was developed using a multivariable logistic regression model with backward selection. Patient and event characteristics for the derivation cohort (n = 3,893) and validation cohort (n = 1,297) were similar. Seventeen variables associated with the outcome remained in the final reduced model after backward elimination. Predictors of in-hospital mortality included age, illness category, pre-event characteristics, arrest location, day of the week, nonshockable pulseless rhythm, duration of chest compressions, and interventions in place at time of arrest. The C-statistic for the final score was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.75–0.78) in the derivation cohort and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74–0.79) in the validation cohort. The expected versus observed mortality plot indicated good calibration in both the derivation and validation cohorts. The score showed a stepwise increase in mortality with an observed mortality of less than 15% for scores 0–9 and greater than 80% for scores greater than or equal to 25. The model also performed well for neurologic outcome and in sensitivity analyses for events within the past 5 years and for patients with or without a pulse at the onset of chest compressions.

Conclusions:

We developed and internally validated a prediction score for initial survivors of pediatric in-hospital cardiac arrest. This prediction score may be useful for prognostication following cardiac arrest, stratifying patients for research, and guiding quality improvement initiatives.

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